Week 12 Snapshot: The Offense is Back

Wow, the offense is really back, and the last two weeks have proved that.  Yesterday’s game enormously important in terms of the playoff picture, and the Patriots were able to pull trough despite not capitalizing on early opportunities to take control of the game.

Game Notes

• Matt Cassel, wow.  At the end of the preseason I was one of the few supporters of Cassel, saying he could do a decent job as a starter. However, I never saw this coming (except maybe after the kool-aid I was drinking following the 2005 regular season finale.  Matt Cassel not only looks legit, he looks elite.  The past two weeks he has been shattering Patriots records, and the offense is back in full force.  Now it’s up to the defense to step up, they no longer have excuses (except for a list of about one thousand injuries… but hey, we got it done in ’03).
• Benny Green-Ellis looked real good on that last drive.  I don’t know why he doesn’t get the ball consistently.
• Randy Moss was once again amazing, as was Wes Welker.  It’s about time people start talking about these two as the premiere receiving group in the NFL.  I would talk about Gaffney as well, as he’s made some nice plays the last two weeks… but he dropped another easy one… and I need some time to regroup.
• Defensively, stellar play from Richard Seymour, but legendary play from Big Vince Wilfork.  He clogged the lanes all day, and has been dominant the last several weeks.  Big key in stopping the Wildcat.
• Mike Vrabel continues to show increased effectiveness, finally recording a sack.  Last year he was just so dominant, and I hope he can get back to what he was for the stretch run.
• Kevin Faulk is the man.  Period.
• It’s about time people stop trying to label Brandon Meriweather a bust.  He made his fourth interception today, and he really does look like a budding star, at least in my eyes.  Also, I don’t think safety will be a draft priority for the Pats, because we already have to very good starters.

Game Balls

OFFENSE: Matt Cassel – I think this decision really goes without saying.  See above.  However, there is one play that I want to point out.  Fourth and one, second quarter, the Patriots run a quick quarterback sneak.  However, Matt Cassel gains six yards on the play, plowing through defensive lineman, showing his true toughness.

DEFENSE: Brandon Meriweather – Tied for team lead in total tackles, and made the game sealing interception.  This was a toss-up between Meriweather, Wilfork, Seymour, and Vrabel.

A Look Ahead

Next week, the Patriots will battle the Pittsburgh Steelers, in what should be a very heated game.  While I would certainly say that the Patriots won’t be favored, a win would be huge for setting them up for a playoff berth.

Could Adalius Thomas Return for the Playoffs?

Usually, when a player goes down with a “season ending injury”, they get multiple opinions, and when the doctors say the player won’t be able to return, they are placed on injured reserve.  Often, if the team doesn’t see a need to open a roster spot, they might wait.

However, in other cases, if there is a chance that the player may return, they may wait a few weeks to see how that player is recovering.  That brings up the Adalius Thomas situation.

Adalius Thomas broke his forearm nearly two weeks ago, and also had surgery.  However, according to sources, doctors have not yet told Thomas that he is done for the year.  In fact, Thomas went for a follow-up one week ago, and still hasn’t been placed on injured reserve.

Clearly, at this point, it looks like there is some chance that Thomas could return by the end of the season.  If he does return, it would be an immensely huge boost to the Pats’ defense, as Thomas plays in virtually every package amd sub-package, and is very versatile in what he can do.

Week 12 Preview: Patriots at Dolphins

In terms of playoff scenarios, week 12’s game is absolutely critical for the Patriots to make the playoffs.  A loss would drop the Patriots to 6-5, and they would be sitting alone at third place in the AFC East (or possibly tied for last). In essence, this is a playoff game.

Sunday’s game certainly won’t be an easy one, either.  The Pats are coming off a 38-13 week three loss to the Dolphins, as well as a loss last week, and the Dolphins, at 6-4, are riding a little three game win streak of their own.

Keys to the Game

1. Contain the Wildcat – Last time the Patriots played the Dolphins, the Fins not only introduced, but perfectly executed the Wildcat formation, a formation where they line up Chad Pennington on the outside, leave Ronnie Brown behind center to take the direct snap, put Ricky Williams as the left wing-back (where he can make plays in motion), and stack the tight end to the right side.  This play works to perfection due to the mismatches the can cause in the box.  However, people are making too big a deal of this.  The Dolphins only run it about 5% of the time, and the Patriots have had months to prepare for it.  Still, the Dolphins do have the confidence to run this formation, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

2. Keep the Pass Rush Going – Chad Pennington is not the best at avoiding the rush, so if the Patriots can get a steady pass rush from Mike Vrabel and Pierre Woods, they may be able to stop the pass.  Keep in mind, the Patriots didn’t exhibit much of a rush in week three, and it cost them.  Chad Pennington was able to pick the Pats secondary apart with intermediate and crossing routes.

3. Don’t Become One Dimesional – While it was nice to see the Patriots could fall back on Matt Cassel, the Patriots still need to set up the pass with the run. With Lamont Jordan likely out again, Sammy Morris and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will once again be called upon to carry the load of the rushing attack. If they can set the tempo for the game, then the Pats can open up the playbook.

Players to Watch – Dolphins

1. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, #19 – Ginn has been coming on strong as of late, and is becoming the Dolphins biggest threat in the passing game.  He is showcasing improving hands, excellent route running, as well as great after the catch ability.

2. Anthony Fasano, TE, #80 – After a quick start, he hasn’t been part of much of the offense lately, and looks to get back on track this week.

3. Vernon Carey, RT, #72 – Carey is one of the most durable members of the Dolphins offensive line, and has been very key in the Fins’ successful rushing attack this year.  Will go against Ty Warren.

4. Channing Chrowder, ILB, #52 – Chrowder has really helped the Dolphins make the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 team, and has 75 stops on the year already.  Future Patriot?  God I hope so (he will be a free agent).

5. Joey Porter, OLB, #55 – Unfortunately, it’s hard to write a Dolphins preview without mentioning Porter.  In week three, he had four sacks against us.  He has recorded at least a half sack in all but one game this season.  Matt Light will have to elevate his game if he’s gonna stop Porter.

Players to Watch – Patriots

1. Matt Cassel, QB, #16 – Cassel will be looking to build upon his best pro game against the Jets.  However, for Cassel, he just needs to win the Pats the game.

2. Sammy Morris, RB, #34 – Morris will be looking to make a big impact this week against his former team.  He hasn’t been listed on the injury report all week.

3. Jason Webster, CB, #23 – The Patriots will look for Webster to provide a spark for the Patriots over the slot.  With Terrence Wheatley out for the season and Jonathan Wilhite banged up, Webster will get a continued look.

4. Mike Vrabel, OLB, #50 – Vrabel had a great game last week against the Jets, he was getting a significant rush all night.  While you may not have noticed it, he really is back, and he will be looking to finally record another sack this week against the Dolphins.

5. Ben Watson, TE, #84 – Watson had one of the most up and down games I’ve ever seen against the Jets.  He had a couple of nice plays, dropped a pass, and forced his own fumble (wow).  However, his stats did look nice, and it will be interesting to see if he gets continued looks from Cassel,

Greg’s Prediction: Patriots 27 Dolphins 21

I think that the Patriots will barely edge this one out.  It will be close all day, and I think the Pats will move the ball well.  This is a must win game, and the Patriots had the entire weekend off and should be rested and prepared, so I’m thinking this one tilts in the Patriots’ favor.

Patriots to Franchise Cassel?

Before I get into analyzing last night’s game, I want to point out that Cassel had one hell of a game.  Mike Lombardi reports on the Cassel situation:

After last night, I am convinced the Patriots will have to Franchise Matt Cassel this off season for two reasons.  (1) He is a legitimate asset.  He continues to improve each week and he continues to be one of the best players on the field no matter who he plays.  Does he need to keep improving?  Yes, but he is so well coached and his taking to coaching each week.  Why would the Patriots just let him walk and not get something in return for his services?  (2) No one knows what the medical status of Tom Brady will be after he starts to play.  Does the knee prevent him from being his old self?  Can Brady be 100 percent next September?  What happens if he has more setbacks?  And with Cassel, the Patriots have an insurance policy; yes, a very expensive one, but clearly a very effective one.  He proved last night that he can make all the throws and that he can lead the team.  That throw to Moss was sensational, and he won over the locker room.  Now look for the new Patriots to become the Patriots of old on offense. 

I think Lombardi makes a valid point.  Last night, Cassel surely won over the Patriots lockerroom, as well as the ability to completely open up the playbook.  While it was a very tough loss, some things were won from that loss.

And as you may know, Cassel is a free agent after the season.  Franchising him would give him upwards of $10 or $12 million (average of top 5 salaries in the league at that position).  However, what if Brady isn’t ready come 2009?  Are the Patriots ready to hand the offense to Kevin O’Connell?

Cassel would provide the Patriots a safe bet, especially if Brady isn’t ready to go or isn’t the same.  Franchising Cassel really couldn’t have a downside (financial implications aside).  Consider that if Brady is ready to go, the Pats could get tremendous trade value for Cassel at this point, probably a first or second round pick.  In that scenario, they wouldn’t even have to hold on to his monster salary.

Discuss…

 

Week 11 Preview: Jets at Patriots

Tonight’s game may take the Jets-Patriots rivalry to a new level.  I will admit, however, that over the past few years, the rivalry has been very over-hyped, but tonight’s matchup is bigger than ever.

With both teams sitting at 6-3, a victory may give the winning team a chance to run away with the division.  At 7-3, the Patriots would at least temporarily sit at #2 in the AFC with a virtual 2 game lead in the AFC east (with the tiebreaker over the Jets).  A loss would throw the Pats a game behind the division lead, and just another wild card contender in the AFC.  Clearly, the importance of this game is unmeasurable.

Key Injuries – Patriots

Lamont Jordan, RB – Questionable

Sammy Morris, RB – Questionable

Stephen Neal, G – Questionable

Adalius Thomas, LB – Out

Terrence Wheatley, CB – Out

Ty Warren, DE – Questionable

Analysis: The Patriots are clearly very beaten up on both sides of the ball.  If the Patriots are without Warren (game-time decision), they may have a tough time stopping the run.  Also, if Morris can’t go (all indications are that Lamont Jordan will be out again), the Patriots will once again rely on BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the ground.

Key Injuries – Jets

Bubba Franks, TE – Out

Eric Smith, S – Out

David Harris, ILB – Out

Mike Nugent, K – Questionable

Analysis: The biggest impact loss for the Jets will be David Harris, their leading tackler and great run defender.  The Jets will also be without starting safety Eric Smith again, look for Ty Law to take a few of those snaps.

Keys to the Game – Patriots

1. Stop the Run Early – If Brett Favre has a biggest weakness, it is certainly his ability to turn the ball over.  If the Patriots can get off to a good start stuffing the run, they will force Favre to throw, and with the wet conditions, he may become even more turnover prone.

2. Keep the Defense Well Rested –  With the bad conditions, keeping the defense rested will be a key, so that they can’t get as worn down by long drives.  To counter that, the Patriots need to produce the same long, smash-mouth drives that they produced last week against the Bills.  Although the Jets, ranked fifth in run defense, will try to stop that.

3. Give Cassel Time – The last two weeks, Matt Cassel has looked really good stepping into the pocket and letting the ball rip.  Why?  Pass protection.  Over the past two weeks Cassel has only been sacked one time.  The Jets are ranked near the top of the league in quarterback sacks at 30, and it will be up to the likes of Nick Kazcur and Matt Light to make sure Cassel has time back there.

Players to Watch – Patriots

1. Stephen Neal, RG, #61 – The Patriots’ pass protection has been rediculously better since Neal came back from injury.  However, he is questionable this week with a lingering knee injury, so keep your eye on him.

2. Matt Cassel, QB, #16 – If the Jets manage to shut down the run, the Patriots may be forced to lean on Matt Cassel’s shoulders. He has progressed a lot the last few weeks, but he has had a pretty consistent attack on the ground.

3. Pierre Woods, OLB, #58 – With Adalius Thomas out, young linebacker Pierre Woods will be thrust into the starting linebacker.  With decent speed, good pass rushing skills, and potential in zone coverage ability, it will be interesting to see how Woods responds to his big opportunity.

4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, #42 – Green-Ellis will be facing his toughest matchup this season against the Jets stingy run defense.  If he’s going to make a real name for himself (no pun intended), this may just be his chance.

5. Vince Wilfork, NT, #75 – A lot of people are going to be eyeing the matchup of Big Vince against Kris Jenkins, even though they won’t exactly be matching up.  However, I give my nod to Vincey.

Players to Watch – Jets

1. Ty Law, DB, #22 – I’d like to see the Patriots tear Law apart, and if he’s covering Wes Welker, that may just happen.  However, if Law does play, you know he can make a big impact, and I would watch out for him.

2. Kris Jenkins, NT, #77 – Again… the battle of the nosetackles.  No matter who wins that media-hyped matchup, one thing is for sure; Kris Jenkins has help revitalize the Jets defense, and will make a huge impact no matter what.

3. Calvin Pace, OLB, #97 – A lot of people questioned the Jets decision to throw big money at the former Cardinal.  However, it has paid off, as Pace has had huge dividends, bringing an Adalius Thomas type impact.

4. Chansi Stuckey, WR, #83 – The second year receiver has turned into a consistent threat for the Jets, and is the type of player that could make a big impact tonight.

5. Vernon Gholston, OLB, #56 – Just kidding.  What a difference six months makes.

Greg’s Prediction: Patriots 26 Jets 17

In the end, I think this turns into a sloppy, grind it out game.  I think the Jets make too many turnovers, but I think the Patriots will fail to cap off some drives with touchdowns, making this one interesting.  Random prediction, but I have a feeling Mike Vrabel is going to score a touchdown in this one.

Ty Law Coming Back Thursday… As A Jet

Adam Schefter of NFL.com reports that the New York Jets have signed free agent CB Ty Law for the remainder of the season.

Free-agent cornerback Ty Law reached agreement Monday with the Jets on a one-year deal, and is expected to play Thursday night against the Patriots.

“This is going to be different playing Thursday night against the Patriots, matching up against my former team and the players I’m used to practicing against,” Law said as he was packing in Boston to drive to New York only to return to Boston again on Wednesday.

“I know they’re going to throw at me, but I welcome the challenge — bring it. I got the tricks for you.”

Could this just be Mangini playing mind games with Bill? And did they really have to do this on Troy Brown night at Foxboro? Hopefully Mangini has a little more class than to try to take any attention away from this special night for the Patriots and their organization by recognizing a team legend.

Ty Law, although almost always in good shape, can’t possibly be close to game shape and shouldn’t play much or a role in Thursday night’s game. As if a Jets/Pats game couldn’t be any more exciting, we get this little bit of news just 72 hours before kickoff.

Is it Thursday yet?!?!?!

Report: Adalius Thomas Likely Out For Season

n news that will completly change the scope of things on the defensive side of the ball, it looks like linebacker Adalius Thomas is done for the season with a broken left forearm.  ESPN.com’s Michael Smith reports:

New England’s win over Buffalo Sunday came with a significant loss.

Linebacker Adalius Thomas, who has started all nine games for the Patriots and is tied for the team lead with five sacks, suffered a broken left forearm in the first half of the Patriots 20-10 win, according to sources. The sources believe the injury is likely season ending.

“It’s not good. He’s probably done [for the season],” said one source.

This is probably the worst possible injuries the Patriots could suffer on defense (Vince Wilfork being the other), and the best we can hope is that Thomas will not be out for the whole year, and will be able to return for a playoff run.  In the mean time, however, Thomas is out, and his loss will change the scope of the Patriots’ defense.

He has played the most snaps of any Patriots defender this season, as plays in all packages and sub-packages (as in coverage and base defenses).  With Thomas out, Pierre Woods will likely slide into the starting position.  Look for rookie Vince Redd to be promoted from the practice squad.  It’s a shame that Shawn Crable is out for the year, because this would be the perfect opportunity for him to take over Thomas’ role in many of his pass rushing and coverage responsibilities.

The Patriots may also look externally.  There are two names I can immediately think of.  Rosevelt Colvin and Junior Seau.  While re-signing Colvin had never really made sense, it does make perfect sense now.  Colvin, if healthy, is a great pass rusher, and can also play in the nickel and dime sub-packages.  Junior Seau might also be an option.  While I don’t see him as an outside linebacker anymore, he could move back inside, and Gary Guyton or Jerod Mayo, who both played multiple linebacker positions in college, could get some time on the outside.

With the loss of Adalius Thomas, it’s not really a question of what you can do to replace him, because you really can’t.  The real question is, what can you do to best match some of the things he does, as in who can try to take over some of his pass rush and coverage responsibilities.

Week 10 Snapshot: Patriots Put Away Bills 20-10

Solid, solid win.  The Patriots came out today ready to play smash-mouth football, and that’s exactly what they did.  You could tell from the tempo of the Bills’ first and drive;  A three and out capped by a crushing sack by Richard Seymour.  Then, the Patriots came out, moved the ball down the field quickly, and scored on a thirteen yard Matt Cassel run.

The Patriots really moved the ball well all day.  Cassel had a really nice game, didn’t make any mistakes, and continued to progress.  I thought he looked very more confident in the pocket, stepping up well into throws, and avoiding the rush when necessary for the most part.  He also was throwing the ball well in the 10-25 yard category, connecting to Moss, Welker, and Gaffney on multiple occassions.

While the Patriots threw the ball well, they really set the tempo with the ground game.  Enter BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  The undrafted rookie continued to look very impressive, going for 105 yards on 26 carries with a touchdown.  He runs with good pad level, has a nice initial burst, makes quick cuts (as in he doesn’t dance), and just keeps his legs churning to pick up the extra yards.  The more I see him, the more I think he could actually become a legit threat.  It will be interesting to see how many carries he keeps when Morris and Jordan come back.

Game Balls

Offense – BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB: Green-Ellis was a major factor in the Patriots win.  His 105 yards on 26 carries helped set the tempo for the game, as his ability to kill the clock allowed the Patriots to take control of the game.  I also want to give recognition to Wes Welker who played another great game, registering 10 receptions for 107 yards including a few impressive catches.

Defense – Ty Warren, DE: As I’ve said many times, Ty Warren is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.  He came up big today, registering seven tackles as well as a crucial sack on Trent Edwards.

Courtesy Getty Images

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Week 10 Game Inactives

The Patriots game inactives for week 10 against the Bills:

LaMont Jordan, HB

Sammy Morris, HB

Eric Alexander, ILB

Wesley Britt, T

Billy Yates, G

Lewis Sanders, CB

Terrence Wheatley, CB

Matt Gutierrez, QB

These are pretty much expected.  However, this does not mean they are easy to overcome.  For the third straight week, BenJarvus Green-Ellis will start at running back, splitting time with Kevin Faulk.  Also, the secondary will look a bit thin, with Both Terrence Wheatley and Lewis Sanders out.  Jason Webster might be thrust into a bigger role than expected.